On April 11, 2025, traders placed large, targeted call option bets on Apple. That evening, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones from tariffs, news not publicized until April 12. These trades weren't speculation - they were placed before the memo was released.
It is a damned textbook thing to do this in corrupt regimes, if anyone is wondering. If you want to commit a crime, you want as many co-conspirators as possible, because it muddies the waters and makes it much harder to prosecute.
If eg. Peter Thiel made some funny trades, he can just say he did it in response to the tweet, which is technically arguably public information. And if it’s not, what will you do, prosecute all users of Truth Social?
Imagine the screeching.
The Apple thing happened after the policy changes that the above post was about though.